The Bubble Dance

So the deal is this – I’ve been reviewing my online tournament results in recent times (I hand-write all my results in a journal I keep next to the computer: key hands, chip-count at the end of each level, and so on and so forth – I know I should get poker tracker, I know this is a far superior way to record your results, and I guess I will eventually. But for now I’m a traditionalist – so bugger off). It seems that I am consistently getting deep into each tournament I play – but not deep enough. I seem to regularly get knocked out with about 10% – 20% of the entrants remaining (in anything from 100 to 2000-player tourneys). Of course, the standard tournament pays approximately the top 10% of entrants, so I’m regularly out on the bubble.

So riddle me this: what the fuck am I doing wrong? And what is a good strategy for playing the bubble in tournaments with a low buy-in ($5 - $50)?

I’ve been thinking on this the past couple of weeks and come up with some incomplete and likely flawed guidelines on how to play the bubble:

#1) Contrary to popular advice – people don’t ‘tighten up’ on the bubble

While they may do in live tournaments (I’ve certainly seen this), your average Party Poker player just doesn’t tighten up their play near the bubble in low buy-in events. Sure, some short short stacks (2 times the BB and less), try to stall and fold their way into the money, but as for the rest, I just don’t think they make a tactical adjustment to their play. The problem is that I’ve been reading too many strategy columns that argue for ramping up the aggression near the bubble (as with everyone tightening up you should – in theory – be able to win pots uncontested). So I go and do this (not with trash – I’ll always have a little something to back myself up) and get called called called into oblivion by the poker geniuses populating low buy-in PP tournaments.

#2) ‘Folding equity’ doesn’t apply to calling stations

So anyway, I figure – why not just tighten up? If I have a decent stack, and am not getting premium hands – why try steals and aggressive raises when my opponents simply can’t be steamrolled? For much of the online poker world, the only raise that gets any respect is the all-in (the one that is enough to put your opponent all-in). But this seems like a high risk strategy when your opponents are little inclined obey the mathematical laws of folding equity. And so, if folding equity has less relevance in this context, then starting hand selection proportionally grows in importance.

So this is all fine if you can score a couple of monster hands – if you play them right you can accumulate big chip stack. But what if you don’t? Isn’t the beauty of No Limit that it is the only game where you can consistently win pots without a hand? Well, not all is lost – as there are always stacks (often the medium stacks) you can find at a table who aren’t willing to put up much of a fight for their blinds (and this is true whether they are near the bubble or not). Then there are also the stacks that will always call a pre-flop raise on their blind, and then fold to a continuation bet if they miss the flop. These stacks are tougher to play against, as firstly, you need the stones to fire that second shot, and secondly, you need to trust your judgment enough to believe you’ll make the right decision after the flop. The real problem here is the blind structure – in PP tournaments, you’ll often only have two shots to fire before you are short stacked or busted. Obviously therefore, being able to pick the right spot is absolutely crucial.

Again, the play of your opponents here has little to do with the bubble – these players play the same game whatever the stage of the tournament.

#3) Unfamiliar Players

Towards the end of these tournaments, as players are cut down and table re-organisation becomes more frequent, you will find yourself occasionally being moved to a new table, occasionally at a table that is broken up, and fairly regularly in a situation where new players are moved to your table. This has been said elsewhere, but I think it best to give these people credit. Until you have evidence to the contrary, I usually take the bets these people are making at face value.

#4) If you are a big stack, avoid confrontations with stacks that can hurt you

Like the last one, this is obvious and oft repeated. But seriously, make sure you have a damn good reason before entering a pot – on the bubble – with another stack that can do you damage.

#5) Get Lucky

I'm serious. Win some coinflips, badbeat someone at least once, have your good hands stand up.

I must confess some hypocrisy here. I almost never lay out a bad beat. I rarely win when I'm behind.

Every now and again you'll here a story about someone losing with quads to a straight flush or something equally improbable. In the poker universe, there are the people who have the straight flush and there are the people who have the quads. I'm on the side with the quads. I know probability says that things these even out over time - that you will be equal parts the straight flush man and the dude with quads. Maybe that's right. But there's a part of me, deep down, that knows, just as there is a part of you, dear reader, that understands at some primordial level - that some people DO just get lucky in this world, and some people at the other end of the spectrum DO just get fucked on. It's just the way the universe works.

Don't get me wrong - I would never suggest an individual's results over the long term are luck-dependant (if I did, I wouldn't be playing this damn game), I'm just saying that probability doesn't account for everything.

But anyway, I digressed - the point I was making is this: get lucky every now and again.

In conclusion…

Now, the above advice may appear to be overly cautious – but don’t worry - you still get to carry a big stick. When it’s time to shove all your chips in the middle, it’s time.

But, as I’ve said in earlier posts, patience is a much undervalued poker trait. It only takes a couple of hands to build a monster stack. And if it means folding for a whole level before you hit a hand, then so be it. In the poker world, there seems to be some sort of shame attached to prudence; to a willingness to back down once in a while. Sure, I love to steal, I love to re-raise on a bluff and I love putting people to the test – but with few exceptions, any success I’ve had in online or live tournaments has been balancing these thing with some patience: changing gears, slowing down, and waiting for the right moment. As a general rule, it hasn’t been the great plays that have won me the money: it’s been the great folds.

But on the other hand, I’m a low limit grinder, a part time player, and down deep inside I have abiding admiration for Roxette – so why listen to me?

*****

Oh, and if you don’t know who Roxette is – give yourself an uppercut and then talk to Google